SMM April 28 Report: On Friday evening, LME copper opened at $9,375.5/mt. It initially dipped to $9,350/mt, fluctuated considerably during the session, hitting a high of $9,401.5/mt, and closed at $9,360/mt after continued fluctuations, marking a 1% decline. Trading volume reached 13,000 lots, and open interest stood at 286,000 lots. On the same evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2506 contract opened at 77,510 yuan/mt. It fluctuated rangebound in the early session, with the price center shifting downward, hitting a low of 77,250 yuan/mt. The price center rebounded towards the end of the session, reaching a high of 77,550 yuan/mt, and closed at 77,470 yuan/mt, down 0.22%. Trading volume reached 45,000 lots, and open interest stood at 162,000 lots. On the macro front, US stocks generally showed mediocre performance on Friday, with market participants continuing to await more information on the tariff war. Market sentiment remained somewhat uneasy after Trump stated that he would consider it a "total victory" if foreign import tariffs reached 50% within a year. However, overall market sentiment remained cautious due to the deteriorating economic outlook and tariffs eroding corporate profits. The US dollar recorded its first weekly gain since mid-March, putting pressure on copper prices. On the fundamental side, supply-side factors saw a slight loss in SHFE copper imports, leading to tight arrivals. Coupled with limited replenishment of circulating supplies in the Shanghai area after destocking, suppliers maintained firm quotes. On the demand side, large factories had largely completed their stockpiling for the May Day holiday, while small and medium-sized enterprises began stockpiling this week. Additionally, with copper prices at high levels, downstream buyers remained cautious about factors such as tariffs, adopting a wait-and-see attitude and restraining trading activity. Regarding prices, the US Fed is still struggling to cut interest rates, with vague expectations, raising concerns that the Fed may only take action after an actual US economic recession occurs. Copper prices are already under pressure from the current situation, and with a series of economic data scheduled for release this week, copper prices may experience significant volatility.
